In August 2024, China imported 2.574 million mt of copper concentrates and ores, up 18.9% MoM, but down 4.6% YoY. From January to August, the cumulative imports of copper ores and concentrates were 18.635 million mt, up 3.2% YoY. The copper concentrate imports in August set a new monthly record for 2024 in China.
In July, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.165 million mt, marking the lowest monthly import volume for 2024. However, in August, the copper concentrate imports hit the highest monthly volume for 2024. How should we interpret the occurrence of these two extremes in succession?
SMM believes that the low copper concentrate imports in July were likely due to the extremely unfavorable spot TC for copper concentrates in May and June, which led some smelters to reduce copper concentrate purchases and instead seek the use of copper scrap and blister copper. In Q2, the ample supply of copper scrap led to an increase in the production of blister copper and copper anode, providing objective conditions for smelters to use substitutes.
Additionally, according to SMM statistics, China's copper cathode production in July was 1.0282 million mt, with the proportion of copper scrap and blister copper used in copper cathode smelting rising to 26%. Entering August, the number of smelters with maintenance plans further decreased. According to SMM statistics, four smelters planned maintenance involving a blister copper capacity of 730,000 mt, increasing the demand for copper concentrate feed.
